Hall of Fame baseball writer Hal McCoy has retired from the Dayton Daily News after covering the Cincinnati Reds for 37 years. Hal's blog, though, will continue to be a must-read for Reds fans. He'll share his thoughts on the team this season and will file updates from Great American Ball Park. You also can catch Hal in print every Sunday in his popular Ask Hal columnHome > Blogs > The Real McCoy | Cincinnati Reds baseball news > Archives > 2012 > April > 16 > Entry
Patience can still be rewarded
UNSOLICITED OBSERVATIONS from The Man Cave, with no game, but a nice night of reading my Kindle and watching Everybody Loves Raymond re-runs. He’s a sports writer who never works. How’d I miss that part of this job?
In these times of instant gratification, it is normal for baseball fans to contemplate hemlock when their local nine rumbles to a rocky start.
And such is the case with fans of the Cincinnati Reds, a team that recently invested the gross national product of Chile into two players.
And in the off-season, the team made deals and signings that pumped up fandom into thinking this team might easily win 105 games without really trying.
AS ANY TRUE fan realizes, baseball doesn’t work that way. And a 3-6 start isn’t evidence enough to click off the TV and say, “No more. I’m not watching any more of this.”
It was, of course, disconcerting to watch the Reds flop and flail in Washington, D.C. over the weekend, losing the first three games, twice in extra innings.
They avoided a four-game sweep and a 2-7 start by beating the Nationals on Sunday in 11 innings.
NOW WHAT? IT’S off to St. Louis to play the defending World Series champions and the only team of six in the National League Central with a winning record (7-3).
The three-game series, beginning Tuesday night, is the second series between the two contenders in a week’s time. The Cardinals visited Cincinnati last week and took two of three.
If there is anybody who doesn’t carry a panic button in the back pocket of his baseball pants, it is Reds manager Dusty Baker.
“Baseball is a marathon, a 27-mile run,” he said. “We’re only a bout a mile-and-a-half into the season. No, it is not fun to watch right now, but that’s when you have to scratch and claw. It is when you have to get down the bunts, hit sacrifice flies, take the extra base and do all the little things that help you win.”
IF IT IS TIME to develop worry lines, then fans should look all over the country.
The Los Angeles Angels invested $300 million in first baseman Albert Pujols and another large chuck of change in pitcher C.J. Wilson. The Angeles are 3-6 and in last place in the American League Central.
The Miami Marlins plunked down heavy duty cash on shortstop Jose Reyes and pitcher Mark Buehrle. The Marlins are 4-6 and in last place in the National League East.
The three teams deemed the class of the American League Central, the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, all are .500 or under and are in third, fourth and fifth in the American League East, behind Balitmore and Toronto.
THE SAN FRANCISCO Giants, picked to win the National League West by most observers, are 4-4 and next to last in the National League West.
The Philadelphia Phillies, armed better than Machinen Gun Kelly ever was with a pitching staff to kill, are 4-5 and next-to-last in the National League East.
It is the time of year when the standings can turn upside down in less than a week, no time to make any rash conclusions on the ultimate outcome.
THE CARDINALS, Yankees, Red Sox and Rays all staggered out of the gate last year and spent the first half of the season last year inhabiting the lower reaches of their respective divisions, but how did that work out?
The Reds started off 5-0 last year and the Milwaukee Brewers started off 0-5. How did that turn out?
With the Reds this year, Johnny Cueto, who faces the Cardinals Tuesday night, is the only starting pitcher after two trips through the rotation with a victory and he did that on Opening Day. Will that continue? Absolutely not.
Absolutely, the Reds right now are Team Slump, a .205 team batting average, 27th worst of the 30 teams in the majors.
It’s a cliché to say a player isn’t hitting his weight, but the Reds have a plethora of them: Willie Harris (.059), Scott Rolen (.121), Drew Stubbs (.167), Devin Mesoraco (.167), Ryan Hanigan (.182), Chris Heisey (.200), Jay Bruce (.205), Wilson Valdez (.211).
Will those averages stay that low? Not even close. Sit back, relax and enjoy the ride. It’s a long trip and the Reds aren’t even out of the city limits yet.
NEED SOME good Ask Hal questions for Sunda’s DDN. Send ‘em by noon Thursday and there is a good chance you’ll find you question included. Send them, now, to halmccoy1
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By Cleat
April 18, 2012 7:50 PM | Link to this
I do not understand why anyone is counting soooo much on Masset??? What did he do last year?? I remember poor performances, not shut down exhibitions we could count on. He isn’t all that they insist that he is. There has to be a better choice like JJ hoover!
By redsfandownunder
April 18, 2012 12:19 AM | Link to this
Can someone please explain (seriously) why Willie Harris is on the roster? There is nothing in the infield that he can do that a healthy Cairo, Frazier or Valdez can do just as well or better. He doesn’t hit for power and his lifetime BA is .239. Please don’t tell me it’s b/c he bats left handed b/c his lifetime BA against righties is .243. Surely the Reds can come up with someone (even a right handed batter) who can do better against Left handed pitching. His existence cannot be justified.
By Cleat
April 17, 2012 11:33 PM | Link to this
And, tonight another assinine decision by Baker, not to have Phillips bunting with no outs and runners on 1st and 2nd. The game would have been won by the Reds. Why did he do this? Because Phillips is a freaking veteran… and Dusty NEVER wants to ‘embarrass’ a veteran by asking him to do something ‘demeaning’ like bunt…except for veterans who cannot bunt, like Willie Harris tonight. Decision-making? Baker is incapable of good decisions. Fire him tonight.
By Mike-Dayton
April 17, 2012 6:55 PM | Link to this
Patience only works when you are dealing with someone who has a track record of making good personnel decisions and winning. Dusty has shown neither with the Reds (he had a nice run with the Giants in the 1990’s when he put Bonds in the lineup everyday but his career record with both Cubs and the Reds is below .500 with just three winning seasons over those 8 plus years) … winning in 2010 was nice but he has a losing four plus year tenure and has a string of bad players he not only kept on the roster but played. It was a lot easier for the Cards to be patient last year as they had a managerial crew with a track record of success that didn’t make asinine personnel decisions based on who they liked hanging around with ..
By CardsFan
April 17, 2012 6:22 PM | Link to this
DD, I don’t disagree with a thing you said. I don’t disagree with Hal’s point that Reds fans should be patient. And thank goodness we still actually play the games. It’s a lot more fun to watch baseball games than to have a computer tell me who should win based on some small sample (the Cards’ last two championships depended on actually playing the games). But lets not tread on my Cards about the first half of last year on the way to the point. A lot of folks believe that the facts that you use to support your point are important.
By DD
April 17, 2012 4:56 PM | Link to this
I don’t think Hal’s point was that things turned around in St. Louis last year so we should be confident they will here. Nor should we be concerned about the start to this season as our 5-0 start last year, Milwaukee’s 0-5, or St. Louis’ 2-6 (including losing 4 of 6 to San Diego and Pittsburgh) show. Rather, patient as the title of the blog suggests. The first 10 games of a season are an indication of how the season will go just as often as they aren’t. As you yourself said…there is plenty of baseball to be played.
By CardsFan
April 17, 2012 4:44 PM | Link to this
DD… . To be honest, pretty worried. Waino was gone, Albert was hitting in the low .200s. There were reasons why the Cards were losing. But there was for the Cards (and is for the Reds) plenty of baseball to be played—I won’t pretend otherwise. But it is simply not true to suggest that the Cards stunk the first half and came back. If that false premise justifies a fan’s confidence in the Reds, then that is a shame.
By null
April 17, 2012 4:14 PM | Link to this
Hey listen…Stubbs just stuck out again. He is horrible.
By DD
April 17, 2012 3:59 PM | Link to this
CardsFan…the 2011 Cards were also 4-6 after 10 games last year. Then, they lost their 11th game to drop to 4-7. How worried were you at that point?
By CardsFan
April 17, 2012 2:47 PM | Link to this
Not to pick nits but to correct some facts: On April 17, 2011, the Cards were at .500 (8 and 8). On the last day of April, the Cards were first in the Central. Last day of May, first. Last day of June, tied for first. The 2011 Cards had their challenges, but staggering from the gate or inhabiting the lower reaches of the division in the first half were not among them. Any worry among Reds fans is completely justified at this point.
By jim t
April 17, 2012 2:16 PM | Link to this
pedroneedsbourbon, you are the perfect guy to replace the beavercreek school levey poster.
By pedroneedsbourbon
April 17, 2012 1:55 PM | Link to this
Hey we’ve got the perfect guy to replace Dusty already on the bench, Chris Speier.
By Mike in the Creek
April 17, 2012 1:15 PM | Link to this
Let’s not get too excited about Frazier being with the big club. Suspect his numbers from last year and thus far this at Louisville are closer to what to expect out of him. He does have some pop which is a good thing, but to think that will make the difference is dellusional. We need Rolen , Bruce and one of the other 3 headed OF’s to provide consistent .280 hitting. Otherwise, regardless of Dusty moves (good or bad) this team is destined for mediocrity !
By jim t
April 17, 2012 11:51 AM | Link to this
Another thing when complaining about Dusty. Many want to know who has he developed. Instead of looking at it that way how about the vets. Rolen has left enough men on base to qualify as a small villiage.What do you think Dusty or Jacoby can teach Rolen? I know lets move him out of the 4 hole.Oh,thats a good idea. Lets see who replaces him. BP, No he has been hurt, how about Bruce. You mean the 207 hitting Bruce. Ludwig, many were screaming for Heisey to get all the playing time last week.One Home run later and he is the 4 hole hitter.Not a lot of easy answers. Dusty is stuck trusting the back of these players baseball cards while most fans want changes that don’t exist or improve the situation. Bruce,Stubbs,Hannigan,Rolen,Heisey and Ludwig will not hit below 210. If the pitching performs when the bats heat up they will go on a roll.
By jim t
April 17, 2012 11:08 AM | Link to this
WilmingtonGary, saying Dusty is responsible for 2 of the losses is stretching it. It was Simon who threw the wild pitch not Dusty. Also comparing Dusty’s record with the reds and saying he only had one good year is not apples and oranges. This team was not built to win early in Dusty’s reign. Sparky couldn’t have won with Griffey,Dunn and that pitching staff. Dusty has given us the first Divison title in years. I will agree I if he fails to deliver this year a change wil be in order.It is also very convient of you to labe Votto a self made star. If you knew anything about Joey or listened to him talk he is very gracious with Dusty and many others for helping him get to this level. How about Hannigan,Cueto,leake,Cozart,BP. is Bruce not a guy who delivers #0 HRs and 90 RBI’s. I think you may have a blind eye to the facts. Enjoy the season.
By jim t
April 17, 2012 10:57 AM | Link to this
Its been reported that Todd Frazier is on a plane heading to St. Louis. Looks like Cairo will be put on DL.
By Shawn in the ATL
April 17, 2012 10:51 AM | Link to this
I’m guessing that if the team’s under .500 by mid to late May (after ~ 40 games), that will mark the end of Baker…especially if another team in the division is playing well.
By johnbrisker
April 17, 2012 10:40 AM | Link to this
@Steve in NYC - your 2c is topped by the $30M the Reds invested in Chapman to be a middle reliever or set up man. Yes, he should start and someone else should set up or even close. Bailey and Bronson should absolutely not start over Chapman.
By WilmingtonGary
April 17, 2012 10:33 AM | Link to this
If we hadn’t experienced the past 4 years of Dusty ball (326-342), I would agree with the patience line, but come on Hal, you have become a Dusty Baker apologist. 2 of this seasons losses were the result of Dusty’s decisions in the 10 games played. Extrapolate that to 162 games and you get 32 losses caused by Dusty being Dusty. Leaving out Joey Votto, a self made star, name young players Dusty has developed in the past 4 years. Cozart may be another star if Dusty doesn’t screw it up. FIRE DUSTY NOW
By Steve in NYC
April 17, 2012 10:17 AM | Link to this
I’m not really a Reds fan, but I’m just curious… shouldn’t Chapman be starting? So many baseball experts are gushing over Strasburg, but can’t Chapman deal, too? Seems like such a waste to see him in the ‘pen. My 2¢…
By Steve in NYC
April 17, 2012 10:16 AM | Link to this
I’m not really a Reds fan, but I’m just curious… shouldn’t Chapman be starting? So many baseball experts are gushing over Strasburg, but can’t Chapman deal, too? Seems like such a waste to see him in the ‘pen. My 2¢…
By johnbrisker
April 17, 2012 10:15 AM | Link to this
Normal logic indicates that Hal is correct but Stubbs still looks like Stubbs of old, Phillips has a bad hammy and they usually linger, and Rolen looks really old in April. Pitching has been OK and Chapman has been the talent everyone hoped he would be. Reds locked up the major talent and hoped to fill the remainder of the lineup with good citizens who produced previously. Hope the strategy works but Stubbs and Rolen are looking scary.
By steven ross
April 17, 2012 8:47 AM | Link to this
Yep, it’s early and long season awaits but there’s a pall which hangs over this Reds team. Personally, I think Dusty’s a lameduck Manager and that rarely plays well going forward. With David Bell at Louisville and let’s not forget, Jim Riggleman at Double A, waiting in the wings.
By slag
April 17, 2012 8:35 AM | Link to this
Folks….Patience is great and all and, yes, the boys are 10 games into a season, but the issues and deficiencies of this team are not “all of a sudden”..Rolen will not make it without at least 2 stints on the DL and he may find himself on the bench sooner as his bat is really really slow so far…He definitely needs to be moved from the 4 spot to 6 and they need a guy like Ludwig to protect Votto or at least be given an adequate chance to do so instead of this play one day/ sit one day gig… So far, is Stubbs doing anything real shocking right now?? The same “can’t get the contact going” issue is rearing. The guy starts the year in his first AB with a bunt hit and to my recollection he has not done it since. When you run like Bambi then you need to tuck your ego and do what’s best for the team and if that means squaring up once a game then freakin’ do it….I still think Stubbs will have a better year than last year but he does himself no favors by not making the pitchers AND the defense work at all. Need to make sure BP is not pushed right now..Don’t want a lingering hammy to become a tear especially in the month of April when it’s cooler and fields are more prone to be wet…. We’ve seen plenty of the same issues with whiffs and a lack of fundamentals but a teams destination for a year is not made in 10 games..You have to give these guys close to 30 before you learn about who/what they are…I would not be shocked if we’re looking at another .500, or close to, team this year but I hope i’m wrong here…
By jim t
April 17, 2012 8:15 AM | Link to this
Hal, couldn’t agree more. Lets win 2 out of three in St. Louis and Chicago and come home at 500 with the Giants and Stros coming to town.
By DD
April 17, 2012 8:11 AM | Link to this
Patience?!?! Are you kidding me? Fire everybody!!!! (And bring back Chris Dickerson from AAA). What’s amazing to me is that 3 teams have a worse team BA than the Reds .205?
By Ryan
April 17, 2012 7:58 AM | Link to this
Small correction. Aren’t the reds 4-6?
By Mike n The Creek
April 16, 2012 11:44 PM | Link to this
Great column Hal - but many here won’t buy it! Pesonally I think that Pujols won’t hit a HR and is washed up, Lincecum will lose 20, Joe Gilardi is an idiot for hitting Cano in the 4 hole, and Derrick Jeter just might win the triple crown. Oh wait a minute, the season doesn’t end in April!!!! GO REDS, sure would be great to keep the bats alive in St. Louis!